Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
